Donald Trump’s odds to win the Oval Office are now at -163 following Joe Biden’s decision to drop out – meaning oddsmakers view him as being 62 percent likely to surface as the next president come November.
It stood as a a slight dip from a day ago when the president’s odds were pegged at 64 percent, suggesting some uncertainty as Democrats mull a new candidate.
In contrast, Biden’s odds plummeted to a paltry +9900, according to PredictIt – meaning he now has a mere one percent chance to secure a second term.
His Vice President, Kamala Harris, saw her odds rise drastically to +178 – up from the +900 seen just days ago on July 16. Back in June, before Biden’s disastrous debate performance, her chances were even lower, at +2400.
This means oddsmakers have pegged her as being 12 times more likely at pulling of a win as she was a month ago, when handicappers saw Biden’s odds as around 50-50.
That statistic has since halved six times over, as the election rapidly approaches. As it does, other figures have some surprising odds as well, from California’s Gavin Newsom to former First Lady Michelle Obama.
Donald Trump’s odds to win the Oval Office are now at -178 after Joe Biden’s decision to drop out – meaning oddsmakers view him as being 62 percent likely to serve as the next president
It stood as a a slight dip from a day ago when the president’s odds were pegged at 64 percent, suggesting some uncertainty as Democrats mull a replacement for the newly bowed out Biden
While not the most reliable of information aggregators due to journalists and political staffers being disallowed from casting, the site and its odds marker is widely considered an effective and reliable measure of predicting elections.
It is also the only presidential odds market that has a federal exemption for research reasons – as such markets, strictly speaking, are not exactly legal.
But despite repeated attempts to upend it by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), this one is – and now shows Trump comfortably leading despite a small slip-up seemingly triggered by Biden’s decision to bow out.
He started the day with a line of -178, now down to -163.
Harris, meanwhile, started last week as a long-shot with 10-1 odds, even as many pegged her as the apparent replacement as many called on Biden to drop out.
This prospect took a step closer to becoming a reality almost immediately Sunday, after her old running mate took to X to make the highly anticipated announcement.
Within seconds, her chances spiked by nine percent, after already improving by some 17 percent over the course of last week.
The next-most dramatic shift was sported by Biden, whose stock slipped from +567 to nearly 100-1 again in seconds, after sloping down from 48 percent since his debate last month.
Most likely replacement Kamala Harris, Biden’s vice president, saw her odds rise drastically to +178 – up from the +900 seen just days ago
This is a developing story; please check back for updates.
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