US coronavirus pandemic could be over as early as November, predictive model shows

The coronavirus pandemic in the United States could be over as early as mid-November, new modeling has shown. 

Researchers at Singapore University of Technology and Design have created a complex model predicting the exact date the pandemic will end in the US, UK, and other countries around the world. 

According to the data, the US is on track to be coronavirus-free by November 11, while the UK could see an earlier end date of September 30.  

The model predicts the trajectory of the virus over time while tracking the number of new confirmed cases per day in a given country, as of May 12. 

Predictive modeling by Singapore University of Technology and Design estimates the US coronavirus crisis could end by November 11 

The US has the highest number of coronavirus cases in the world, topping 1.6million as of Saturday, and 95,979 deaths

The US has the highest number of coronavirus cases in the world, topping 1.6million as of Saturday, and 95,979 deaths 

Researchers, however, noted the predictions by nature are likely to be uncertain due to the complexity of the virus as well as other factors including the restrictions and testing protocols in place in a country. 

In the US, changes in predictions were tracked over a one-week period and found to be relatively stable, suggesting a ‘long time to reach its theoretical ending’. 

‘The estimated curves of USA for a week together, showing a high stability, while one might still want additional policies or actions to further shorten the tails of the curves,’ the report states. 

The study also found predictive monitoring in early May showed the US – and second worst-hit country Brazil- could still suffer for the remainder of the year, without stricter restrictions or a vaccine.    

For Italy, which once led the world in the number of coronavirus cases, could recover by October 24, according to modeling as of May 8. 

However, scientists note the predictions are only estimates and subject to change depending various factors. 

‘The model and data are inaccurate to the complex, evolving, and heterogeneous realities of different countries over time. Predictions are uncertain by nature,’ the report states. 

‘Over-optimism based on some predictions is dangerous because it may loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the turnaround of the virus and infection, and must be avoided.’ 

As of Saturday, there are 1,600,937 confirmed cases of coronavirus in the US and 95,979 deaths. 

It comes as all 50 states have begun gradually reopening and easing restrictions following months of lockdown.

But experts and health officials have since cautioned that easing restrictions too soon could lead to a spike in cases.  

Earlier this month, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Dr. Anthony Fauci warned another wave of the virus was ‘inevitable’.  

Dr Fauci said reopening cities and states too quickly could trigger an outbreak that would get out of control and turn the clock back on efforts to fight the coronavirus.

‘You will trigger an outbreak as you may not be able to control,’ he warned in his testimony before the Senate. 

The model predicts the pandemic in the UK will be over by September 30

The model predicts the pandemic in the UK will be over by September 30

Even with widespread testing and social distancing measures, health authorities have warned there is no guarantee until a vaccine is developed.   

In his testimony before the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee, Fauci said scientists are already testing possible vaccines in a phase one clinical trial with an eye of going to phase two this summer.

‘If we are successful, we hope to know that in the late fall and early winter,’ he said.

He also said there were at least eight vaccines in clinical development. 

He warned that with the testing could come negative consequences, including the death of patients.

‘I must warn that there is also the possibility of negative consequences where certain vaccines can actually enhance the negative effect of the infection,’ he said.

He also warned as states begin to reopen – thus pulling back on stay-at-home orders and social distancing – ‘you will see some cases reappear.’

‘There is no doubt even under the best of circumstances, when you pull back on mitigation, you will see some cases appear,’ Fauci warned, adding the U.S. must be prepared for ‘when the inevitable return of infections occurs.’

‘We will start to see little spikes that might turn into outbreaks,’ he noted.