Warning over explosion of strokes in next decade: Analysis projects 50% increase in deadly events amid UK’s obesity crisis

The number of people having strokes is set to increase by more than half in the next decade.

Lifestyle factors combined with the ageing population and insufficient action on stroke prevention will see cases rise from 100,000 to 150,000 by 2035, according to analysis by the Stroke Association.

They estimate the associated cost – both in terms of healthcare and lost productivity – will exceed £75billion, almost half of the current NHS budget.

Stroke occurs when blood flow to the brain is disrupted by a clot in an artery or a bleed, causing the brain to start to die.

The risk increases with age but medical conditions including high blood pressure, high cholesterol and diabetes – often fuelled by obesity -can increase the risk.

Alongside the rise in new strokes, experts predict the stroke survivor population will increase by 62 per cent from 1.3million to 2.1million, the equivalent to the population of Slovenia.

Last year, only four in ten stroke patients were admitted to specialised stroke care units within the four-hour target, down from 55 per cent before the pandemic.

This is despite the majority of stroke survivors being left with a disability such as difficulties walking, writing or speaking.

One in four happen to people of working age with more than a third (37 per cent) giving up work following a stroke.

This means that by 2035 more than 173,000 stroke survivors will be missing from the workforce. 

The current loss of productivity due to stroke is £1.6billion, which is set to increase by 136 per cent in the next decade.

The charity is calling for better approaches to prevention, treatment and recovery from stroke, to be included in party manifestos to reduce its burden on people’s lives, the NHS and the economy.

Juliet Bouverie OBE, chief executive at the Stroke Association, said the demand for NHS services will be unsustainable by 2035.

She said: ‘Every stroke is a tragedy, but 151,000 strokes per year, and growing each year, will be a failure of leadership.

‘In 2000, stroke was the second leading cause of death in the UK but by making stroke a national priority reflected in local resources, stroke mortality was halved by 2010. So, change is possible.’

A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: ‘We’re committed to improving stroke prevention, treatment, and recovery for all. 

‘Over 90 per cent of acute stroke care providers in England are equipped with Artificial Intelligence, which can reduce the time it takes to access treatment such as thrombectomy by more than 60 minutes.

‘The first ever Long Term Workforce Plan will help to shift more care into the community and invest more in prevention and early intervention, and we’re rolling out a new digital NHS Health Check which could prevent hundreds more strokes.

‘We are also taking action to encourage better lifestyle choices, including creating a smokefree generation and reducing salt intake through food to help prevent the risk of strokes.’