North Korea could soon have the ability to hit a major US city with a nuclear weapon, granting leader Kim Jong-un a chilling new influence over the west.
While launching a strike on the United States would prove deadly for North Korea, the technology could help deter an invasion and establish the North as a global military power.
Experts estimate North Korea could develop missiles capable of hitting the US as early as next year, and some suggest it already has them.
Here are some of the key technological challenges the North faces before reaching that goal, as reported by the New York Times.
North Korea could soon have the ability to hit a major US city with a nuclear weapon, granting leader Kim Jong-un a chilling new influence over the west. But the North still faces key technological challenges (pictured) before reaching that goal
A small enough bomb – probably already completed
Experts have long debated whether North Korea has developed a powerful nuclear bomb that is also small and light enough to fit into the nose cone of a missile.
The smaller and lighter the missile’s payload is, the further it can travel.
Last year, officials released a press photo of Kim Jon-un next to what appeared to be a small, shiny bomb.
The bomb appeared to be around two-feet wide, making it small enough to fit inside an ICBM warhead.
North Korean said in July it had successfully tested (pictured) an intercontinental ballistic missile for the first time
While we can’t know whether the photo shows a real missile, a mock-up or a fake designed to strike fear in the west, nuclear experts say that the North likely has succeeded in making a small enough nuclear bomb to fit inside an ICBM.
Joshua Pollack, a leading expert on nuclear missile proliferation, told the New York Times: ‘Any country that has conducted five nuclear tests can probably do it.
‘I give them the benefit of the doubt.’
While launching a strike on the United States would prove deadly for North Korea, the technology could help deter an invasion and establish the North as a global military power. Pictured is North Korea leader Kim Jong-un during an ICBM test in July
Surviving re-entry – expected next year
Building a missile warhead that can withstand the extreme heat and forces of atmospheric re-entry is exceptionally difficult.
Upon re-entering Earth’s atmosphere from space, warheads will travel as fast as four miles (6.5 km) per second.
The friction against the planet’s atmosphere that this generates means that poorly designed warheads will burn up long before they reach their target.
Experts estimate North Korea could develop missiles capable of hitting the US as early as next year, and some suggest it already has them. It currently does not have missiles capable of re-entry through the Earth’s atmosphere, but should have developed the technology by 2019
Some ICBMs are coated with thick materials to create a shield that deflects heat into the missile’s wake.
But the forces at work are so great that even the slightest production fault can lead to uneven burns that throw the missile off-target.
Experts claim that if North Korea keeps up its current rate of missile testing, it will likely have a warhead capable of re-entry by next year.
North Korea successfully tested two Hwasong-14 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) in July this year. Experts say the second of these tests appeared capable of reaching the US West Coast, with major cities Denver and Chicago potentially in range
Reaching the US mainland – probably already completed
North Korea successfully tested two Hwasong-14 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) in July this year.
Experts say the second of these tests appeared capable of reaching the US West Coast, with major cities Denver and Chicago potentially in range.
The missile reached an altitude of about 1,900 miles (3,000km) and landed in the sea off Japan.
The tests follow years of rejected long-distance models and empty claims made by North Korean officials.
A powerful new engine design is likely behind the sudden technological advances seen this year, making the North’s missiles more durable and reliable than ever before.
It potentially puts the US in range of North Korean missiles for the first time since the country began building long-range missiles in 1984.
Better accuracy – good enough but not perfect
Accurately guiding a missile halfway around the world is no easy task, and North Korea’s aim has historically been poor.
Countries with advanced ICBM programmes can consistently hit within 200 metres (650 ft) of a target.
Estimates put North Korea’s ICBM accuracy closer to a 3-5 kilometre (2-3 mile) range, though this figure is difficult to confirm as most of the nation’s missiles land in the ocean, and analysts know little of their designated targets.
Last year, officials released a press photo of Kim Jon-un next to what appeared to be a small, shiny bomb (pictured). The bomb appeared to be around two-feet wide, making it small enough to fit inside an ICBM warhead
But despite the North’s inferior accuracy, ‘that’s good enough if you’re aiming at a city,’ Ian Williams, a missile defence expert at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC, told the New York Times.
North Korea will have to improve the accuracy of its missiles if it wishes to reliably hit smaller targets, such as military bases, Mr Williams said.
Experts say that while North Korea currently uses a cheap, blunt warhead that limits speed and accuracy, it appears to be developing more streamlined, conical warheads.
The isolated, impoverished country has made great progress in its missile capabilities since the ascension to power of Kim (pictured), who has overseen three nuclear tests and multiple rocket launches
Get past US anti-missile defences – nobody knows
An anti-missile system has never been used on an ICBM beyond choreographed tests, and even then the costly systems have often missed their mock targets.
If North Korea were to fire three or four ICBMs at the same US city, security systems would likely be overwhelmed and miss at least one of the incoming warheads.
Analysts say the North is currently looking to improve its ICBMs’ anti-missile system penetrative abilities.
In March it fired four missiles in a salvo, which would make it extremely difficult for US systems to shoot every missile down.
North Korea recently displayed a missile warhead that had fins, suggesting it is investing in ICBMs that can zigzag through the air to avoid defence systems.
Despite the imperfect accuracy of North Korea’s latest test missiles (pictured), they are likely good enough to reliably hit a major US city provided they can make the distance
A more powerful bomb – much more work needed
Based on nuclear detonations at North Korea’s underground test sites, experts say Kim Jong-un currently possesses bombs with the same destructive power as the Hiroshima nuclear explosion.
The bomb destroyed an entire city and killed 70,000 people with its initial blast, with tens of thousands more following as a result of radioactive fallout.
Making a more powerful ICBM than this that is still small and lightweight requires thermonuclear fuel, which would upgrade North Korea’s arsenal into hydrogen bombs.
Based on nuclear detonations at North Korea’s underground test sites, experts say Kim Jong-un currently possesses bombs with the same destructive power as the Hiroshima nuclear explosion. Pictured is the world’s first nuclear bomb, ‘the gadget’, tested in August 1945
This would be extremely difficult to achieve, but could produce weapons with up to 1,000 times the destructive power of the North’s current warheads.
North Korea has shown great interest in developing hydrogen bombs, but experts are clueless as to how far off they are from developing one.
The clearest indicator would be the detection of a very large underground blast from one of the North’s testing sites.