What will happen if Peter Dutton loses his seat as Labor insiders grow quietly confident behind the scenes, writes PETER VAN ONSELEN

By PETER VAN ONSELEN, POLITICAL EDITOR FOR DAILY MAIL AUSTRALIA

Published: 06:49 BST, 3 May 2025 | Updated: 06:49 BST, 3 May 2025

Behind the scenes Labor insiders are bullish about their chances of winning Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson. 

The Brisbane suburban seat is held by the opposition leader’s on a slender margin of just 1.7 per cent, making it one of the most marginal Liberal held seats anywhere in the country.

Anthony Albanese visited the electorate on the final full day of campaigning during the week, but Labor have been bullish many times before and fallen short of kicking Dutton out of parliament. 

While the opposition leader’s might have struggled with his popularity nationally during this campaign, he’s long been popular in his own electoral backyard.

But Dutton has been forced to spend most of the campaign elsewhere, trying to take votes off Labor in other marginal seats he hopes to win to form government. 

Has that hurt his chances locally?

Probably not, it’s most likely Labor hype rather than reality. 

But that said, at last weekend’s Canadian election the leader of the Conservative Party lost his seat when losing the election. 

Behind the scenes Labor insiders are bullish about their chances of winning Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson (the Opposition leader is seen voting with his wife Kirilly on Saturday)

Anthony Albanese visited Mr Dutton’s electorate on the final full day of campaigning on Friday (the Prime Minister is seen voting on Saturday)

And just like the Coalition here, they were ahead in the polls a few months back before everything changed.

If Dutton were to lose his seat, irrespective of how well he did elsewhere around the nation it would completely change the narrative tonight. 

Even if Labor loses its majority, forced into a minority power sharing arrangement, if the opposition leader loses his seat and the election, it’s hard to spin the result as anything but a disaster.

And Dutton’s election night speech would certainly be glum, as would the faces of his supporters up in Brisbane where he’ll be addressing the media later this evening.

In the election’s aftermath the jostling for who becomes the next Labor leader would start immediately if Dickson falls to Labor, whereas it might not happen at all if it doesn’t, assuming Labor is stripped of its majority tonight.

So Dickson is well worth keeping an eye on tonight, but you’d think Dutton will scrap home. Even if he’s unlikely to scrap home in enough seats elsewhere to win.

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What will happen if Peter Dutton loses his seat as Labor insiders grow quietly confident behind the scenes, writes PETER VAN ONSELEN

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