Wild Oats and supermaxis loom as favourites for Sydney to Hobart with wild weather predicted

Supermaxis in the Sydney to Hobart will have favourable northerlies for most of their journey, but smaller vessels have been warned about dangerous conditions that will lash the fleet on Boxing Day

A fleet of 109 yachts will set sail from Sydney Harbour from 1pm local time on Monday after the race was cancelled in 2020 and disrupted in 2021 due to the COVID pandemic.

Competitors can expect to be greeted by strong winds and big seas late on the second day of the 77th running of the race with experts warning could pose danger to the smaller vessels.

‘It’s a lot of wind. If it was averaging 35 knots and hitting 40 you would have trouble even running with a kite,’ top yachting forecaster Roger Badham told News Corp.

‘You can be in danger of breaking things. And you can’t go any faster because you can’t run nice big shoots (spinnakers). It’s about looking after your boat Tuesday night.’

LDV Comanche holds the record for the 628nm journey to Hobart in just over one day and nine hours.

With the current weather forecast predicting a downwind race for the frontrunners, it is Andoo Comanche and Wild Oats who have emerged as pre-race favourites this year. 

Although last year’s runner-up supermaxi LawConnect cannot be discounted either, after skipper and owner Christian Beck told Channel Seven the vessel had shed over 300kg in excess weight for this year’s race.

LawConnect in the SOLAS Big Boat Challenge. The crew have lightened the load by 300kg and are confident of a strong showing in the Sydney to Hobart after finishing second last year

‘This boat is getting pretty old and he’s pretty overweight. Everything we’ve done over the years to try and lose weight hasn’t really worked so last year we made a change, we decided to get the bowsprit enlarged,’ Beck said.

‘If you look at how massive it is, it’s actually the biggest in the fleet, and when it comes to bowsprit’s, size does matter.

‘The thing about a bowsprit is that it’s all about sail area so if you’ve got a big bowsprit like this, you can fundamentally hold bigger sails so it’s a big, wide heavy boat, and we are trying to put as much sail out there as we can.’

The Bureau of Meteorology on Saturday forecast predominantly nor’easter winds becoming fresh to strong on Tuesday and Wednesday.

For the first time since 2019 the Sydney to Hobart is back to its old self. A bevy of international yachts are contesting one of the world’s most grueling ocean races from Boxing Day

That will assist the four supermaxis, with the line honours winner likely to finish on Wednesday morning, potentially close to a race-record time.

Conditions are set to be more varied and challenging for the rest of the fleet later.

A cold front is expected to bring a south-westerly change on Wednesday with winds tending southerly by Thursday morning.

Strong wind warnings are likely from late Tuesday with a potential gale wind warning on Wednesday.

Winds will tend from east to north easterly from Thursday as a ridge of high pressure develops.