Youthquake’ vote would have won Election for Labour if 18 to 24-year-olds had been only voters

Jeremy Corbyn would have been swept into Downing Street as Prime Minister with a 544-seat landslide victory if only under-24s were allowed to vote in this month’s general election, it was revealed today.

The ‘youthquake’ Labour needed, but never materialised, would have won them 341 more seats than the 203 they actually took in December, analysis by Election Maps UK has found. 

And Boris Johnson’s Tories would only have got just four seats in that ‘sea of red’ scenario because Mr Corbyn would win almost every seat in England and Wales. The SNP would have secured 58 of the 59 seats in Scotland, while the Lib Dems would have taken 22 seats – up from 11, handing Labour a majority of 438.

But it could have been even worse for Mr Corbyn had only over-65s been able to go to the polls across the UK. 

The ‘blue wave’ of pensioners would have handed Boris Johnson a whopping 562 seats and Labour only 51, while the SNP would have taken just five seats and the Liberal Democrats 10. It would hand the Tories a majority of 474.

But the Tories would have taken 562 seats and Labour only 51 if pensioners were the only voters

Election Maps UK created the stunning graphics by collating how key age groups voted in the election.

Their team then looked at what the overall result would have been had only the 18-to-24 age group – or the over-65s, for example, gone to the polls.  

In the four key age groups areas, this is how Parliament would have looked: 

• If only 18-24 year-olds could vote: LAB: 544 seats (56%) SNP: 58 (5%) LDM: 22 (11%) CON: 4 (21%) GRN: 1 (4%) PLC: 1 (0.5%) IND: 1. Labour Majority of 438.
• if only 25-49 year-olds could vote: LAB: 310 seats (43%) CON: 240 (34%) SNP: 56 (5%) LDM: 21 (13%) PLC: 3 (0.5%) GRN: 1 (3%). Labour 16 short of a Majority
• If only 50-64 year-olds could vote: CON: 421 seats (50%) LAB: 149 (17%) SNP: 47 (4%) LDM: 9 (12%) PLC: 4 (0.5%) GRN: 1 (3%). Conservative Majority of 192.
• If only over 65 year-olds could vote: CON: 562 seats (64%) LAB: 51 (17%) LDM: 10 (11%) SNP: 5 (3%) PLC: 2 (0.5%) GRN: 1 (2%). Conservative Majority of 474.

On December 12 the Tories won 365 seats – 162 more seats than Labour who lost 59 seats and were down to 203 MPs, giving Boris Johnson a majority of 80. 

Election Maps UK told the Evening Standard that split between the two groups has become more pronounced since Mr Corbyn took over the Labour party in 2017.

And the average age of a Tory voter has also been generally rising, reaching 47 when Theresa May was in power.

But Boris Johnson’s ‘Get Brexit Done’ mantra did cut through this time.  

The average age of the Tory/Labour crossover, when more people vote for the Conservatives than the opposition, plummeted to 39, down from 47 two years ago.

Labour would have won the most seats in the 25 to 49 age group but it would have been a hung Parliament because the Tories would hold much of England and the SNP still dominant in Scotland

The 50-plus bracket appears to have been the tipping point for the Tories and would have delivered a majority

This was despite Labour having a manifesto pledge to reduce the minimum voting age from 18 to 16 and urging youngsters to come out and vote in force.

Working class communities also deserted Jeremy Corbyn and Labour in huge numbers after Boris Johnson’s vow to get Brexit done.

The Tories won over the DE social class made up of the unemployed and unskilled workers by 13 points, an extraordinary achievement for a Conservative leader. 

This wiped out Jeremy Corbyn’s three point advantage among the same group in the 2017 election.

And it also dwarfs the eight point lead that Ed Miliband enjoyed in 2015, which prompted his resignation as Labour leader.