Rebel MPs’s latest attempt to force Theresa May into a soft Brexit is underway tonight ahead of a second round of votes on alternatives to her deal including a customs union or a second referendum.
Ministers believe as many as 70 Tory MPs could add their votes to a proposal to remain in the EU customs union, which could lead to it winning over a majority of MPs and killing off the Prime Minister’s deal. The idea fell six votes short of a majority in the first ballot of MPs last week.
A second referendum also ended last week in with a fighting chance while Labour votes could revive the very soft Brexit plan known as Common Market 2.0.
If anything wins, the Commons is then expected to demand Mrs May adopts the result as part of her plan and present it to Brussels. MPs are willing to try and change the law to force her hand.
But if the PM did back down she would face a slew of resignations by Brexiteers, forcing her to consider a snap general election to break the deadlock.
A first round of indicative votes was held last Wednesday but MPs were unable to agree on how to proceed. Eight different scenarios were put to a vote and all were defeated.
Speaker John Bercow selected four alternatives to go on a ballot paper, with the votes scheduled to take place at 8pm and results due around 10pm. He chose a customs union, Norway-style soft Brexit, second referendum and cancelling Brexit.
Brexiteers were furious at the Speaker for refusing to select amendments on No Deal. Such is the power of the Speaker he does not have to justify his choices or explain how they were made.
The motions MPs that came closest to backing with a majority last Wednesday were remaining in a customs union, a second referendum and revoking Article 50.
If everything is defeated again it will leave the entire process in limbo ahead of an emergency EU summit on April 10.
Most Conservative MPs will get a free vote – except the Cabinet who are under orders to abstain.
Labour is again whipping for a second referendum and customs union. It is also now voting for the very soft Brexit ‘Common Market 2.0’ plan – putting the plan back in play despite its poor showing last week.
This afternoon Speaker John Bercow is expected to select three or four of the eight Brexit alternatives to go on a ballot paper, with the votes scheduled to take place at 8pm and results due in around 10pm
These are the results of last week’s indicative votes on Brexit, in order of preference. It shows that while MPs can’t find a consensus they lean heavily towards a softer Brexit or second referendum
These have backing from both the two main parties and in many cases support from the smaller parties.
But under this precedent it would suggest that the motions supporting a no-deal Brexit will not be called for a vote – and in any case they were the least popular last week and seem doomed to fail.
Ministers are considering an unprecedented parliamentary ‘run off’ later this week, pitting Mrs May’s deal against the soft Brexit option chosen by MPs in the hope of focusing the minds of Tory eurosceptics.
Backbenchers led by Sir Oliver Letwin have taken control of the Commons timetable to stage a second round of indicative votes after none of the eight options put to MPs last week won enough support.
If a majority emerges for one of the alternatives tonight, the rebels plan to put down legislation on Wednesday that would force ministers to act.
Former Cabinet minister Ken Clarke, who drew up the customs union plan defeated by just six votes last week, has said he is ‘reasonably confident’ it will get over the line this time.
Meanwhile, supporters of a so-called ‘Common Market 2.0’ proposal that would keep Britain in the customs union and the single market have been seeking to win over DUP and SNP MPs who all abstained when it was voted on last week.
Staying in the single market would involve continued freedom of movement and making contributions to the EU budget, while being in a customs union would prevent Britain from striking its own trade deals.
The Brexit options that MPs are poised to vote on tonight:
Theresa May faces a battle to keep control of Brexit as MPs vote on alternatives to her deal tonigh
Motion C: Customs union with the EU
Tory former chancellor Ken Clarke’s customs union plan requires any Brexit deal to include, as a minimum, a commitment to negotiate a ‘permanent and comprehensive UK-wide customs union with the EU’.
This is where tonight’s vote could get interesting. This amendment last week lost by the tightest margin of them all.
It went down by eight votes, losing by 272 to 264. It means that a handful of MPs changing their mind could see it across the line.
But the SNP and Lib Dems abstained last time so those votes may not be easy to find on the polarised Tory and Labour benches.
And it if did win it would cause havoc in the Government with Brexiteers going on the warpath.
Motion D: Common market 2.0
A cross-party motion tabled by Conservatives Nick Boles, Robert Halfon and Dame Caroline Spelman and Labour’s Stephen Kinnock, Lucy Powell plus the SNP’s Stewart Hosie.
The motion proposes UK membership of the European Free Trade Association and European Economic Area. It allows continued participation in the single market and a ‘comprehensive customs arrangement’ with the EU after Brexit – including a ‘UK say’ on future EU trade deals – would remain in place until the agreement of a wider trade deal which guarantees frictionless movement of goods and an open border in Ireland.
Despite Labour backing last week this lost by almost 100 votes, 283 to 188. But 167 MPs abstained on it, including the DUP. If the Northern Irish party could be talked in to backing it there could be some movement.
Motion E: Second referendum to approve any Brexit deal
Drawn up by Labour MPs Peter Kyle and Phil Wilson, this motion would require a public vote to confirm any Brexit deal passed by Parliament before its ratification.
This option, tabled last time by Labour former minister Dame Margaret Beckett, polled the highest number of votes, although was defeated by 295 votes to 268.
Labour MPs were whipped to support it but 27 mainly from northern Leave-voting areas voted against it and a further 18 – including several frontbenchers – abstained.
Their support would have been enough to pass it but it seems unlikely they will change their minds, given that their concerns remain the same.
Motion G: Parliamentary supremacy
SNP MP Joanna Cherry joins with Mr Grieve and MPs from other parties with this plan to seek an extension to the Brexit process to allow Parliament and the Government to achieve a Brexit deal.
If if this is not possible then Parliament will choose between either no-deal or revoking Article 50.
An inquiry would follow to assess the future relationship likely to be acceptable to Brussels and have majority support in the UK.
This has wide cross-party support so could still be called by the Speaker.
What are MPs voting on this week?
Today: MPs led by Tory Sir Oliver Letwin and Labour’s Yvette Cooper will vote tonight on whether to adopt a soft Brexit option, such as a customs union or membership of the single market, possibly accompanied by a second referendum. Last week, MPs rejected all eight Brexit options put to them in a series of ‘indicative votes’, but supporters of a soft Brexit from both the Tory and Labour benches believe they have a better chance tonight following the third defeat for Theresa May’s deal.
Tomorrow: The Cabinet will meet to discuss a response to the votes. If MPs have backed a customs union, Mrs May will have to decide whether to accept a policy opposed by the vast majority of Tory MPs. If she agrees, the issue could tear the party apart. If she refuses, it would result in a constitutional stand-off that could spark an election. Downing Street fears that she could face a Cabinet walkout regardless of what she decides.
Wednesday: Sir Oliver Letwin has indicated he will try to seize control of the Commons agenda again to pursue his soft Brexit plan. If Monday’s votes were inconclusive, they could be held again, possibly using preferential voting to reduce the options to one. If Monday night’s vote produced a solution, but Mrs May refused to adopt it, Parliament could legislate in a bid to force her hand.
Thursday: Allies of the PM have the day pencilled in for a possible fourth attempt to get her deal through the Commons. They believe that, with the majority against her coming down from 230 to 149 then to 58 last week, they have momentum on their side. Ministers are considering an unprecedented parliamentary ‘run off’ pitting Mrs May’s deal against the soft Brexit option chosen by MPs in the hope of focusing the minds of Tory eurosceptics.
What happens next?
What will the EU do next?
An emergency summit will be held on April 10. Britain can use this to ask for a longer delay to Brexit – perhaps to the end of the year or even longer.
Mrs May has told MPs a long delay will mean holding European Parliament elections on May 22.
What is No 10’s plan?
Mrs May is ploughing on for now. Downing Street is insistent the deal remains the best way of securing an orderly Brexit and appears set on another vote at some point.
No 10 may now consider whether to call a snap general election if MPs try to pass laws to force May to pursue their option next week.
Will May go for a long extension or No Deal?
Nobody knows for certain. The Prime Minister has publicly ruled out personally going for a long extension but also admitted Parliament will rule out No Deal.
Will May resign now her deal has failed again?
Again, nobody knows for sure. Her announcement on Wednesday night that she would stand down was contingent on the deal passing.
In practice, it drained Mrs May of all remaining political capital. Most in Westminster think her Premiership is over within weeks at the latest.
As her deal folded for a third time on Friday, she faced immediate calls from Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn so stand down with instant effect.
What is clear is there is already a fight underway for the Tory leadership.
Does is all mean there will be an election?
Probably, at some point. The Commons is deadlocked and the Government has no functional majority. While the Fixed Term Parliaments Act means the Government can stumble on, it will become increasingly powerless.
Mrs May could try to call one herself or, assuming she stands down, her successor could do so.
Would May lead the Tories into an early election?
Unlikely. Having admitted to her party she would go if the deal passes, Mrs May’s political career is doomed.
While there is no procedural way to remove her, a withdrawal of political support from the Cabinet or Tory HQ would probably finish her even if she wanted to stay.
How is an election called? When would it be?
Because of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act passed by the coalition, the Prime Minister can no longer simply ask the Queen to dissolve the Commons and call an election. There are two procedures instead.
First – and this is what happened in 2017 – the Government can table a motion in the Commons calling for an early election. Crucially, this can only pass with a two-thirds majority of MPs – meaning either of the main parties can block it.
Second an election is called if the Government loses a vote of no confidence and no new administration can be built within 14 days.
In practice, this is can only happen if Tory rebels vote with Mr Corbyn – a move that would end the career of any Conservative MP who took the step.
An election takes a bare minimum of five weeks from start to finish and it would take a week or two to get to the shut down of Parliament, known as dissolution – putting the earliest possible polling day around mid to late May.
If the Tories hold a leadership election first it probably pushes any election out to late June at the earliest.
Why do people say there has to be an election?
The question of whether to call an election finally reached the Cabinet last week.
Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay warned the rejection of Mrs May’s deal would set in train a series of events that will lead to a softer Brexit – meaning an election because so many MPs will have to break manifesto promises.
MPs voting to seize control of Brexit from ministers has only fuelldd the demands.
Labour has been calling for a new vote for months, insisting the Government has failed to deliver Brexit.
Mr Corbyn called a vote of no confidence in the Government in January insisting the failure of the first meaningful vote showed Mrs May’s administration was doomed. He lost but the calls did not go away.
Brexiteers have joined the demands in recent days as Parliament wrestles with Brexit and amid fears among hardliners promises made by both main parties at the last election will be broken – specifically on leaving the Customs Union and Single Market.
Tory MP Andrew Bridgen wants Mrs May replaced with a Brexiteer. He believes it would push Remain Tories out of the party and then allow a snap election with more Eurosceptic candidates wearing blue rosettes.
What might happen?
Both main parties will have to write a manifesto – including a position on Brexit. Both parties are deeply split – in many cases between individual MPs and their local activists.
Under Mrs May, the Tories presumably try to start with the deal. But it is loathed by dozens of current Tory MPs who want a harder Brexit and hated even more by grassroots Tory members.
Shifting Tory policy on Brexit to the right would alienate the majority of current MPs who voted to Remain.
Labour has similar splits. Many of Labour’s MPs and activists want Mr Corbyn to commit to putting Brexit to a second referendum – most with a view to cancelling it.
Mr Corbyn is a veteran Eurosceptic and millions of people who voted Leave in 2016 backed Labour in 2017.
The splits set the stage for a bitter and chaotic election. The outcome is highly unpredictable – the Tories start in front but are probably more divided on the main question facing the country.
Labour is behind but knows it made dramatic gains in the polls in the last election with its promises of vastly higher public spending.
Neither side can forecast what impact new political forces might wield over the election or how any public anger over the Brexit stalemate could play out.
It could swing the result in favour of one of the main parties or a new force.
Or an election campaign that takes months, costs millions of pounds could still end up in a hung Parliament and continued stalemate. This is the current forecast by polling expert Sir John Curtice.