Footy’s night of nights is coming this Sunday, and statistics experts who ran 10,000 computer simulations have concluded there are just six players who can take out the coveted Charles Brownlow Medal.
Two in particular however – Clayton Oliver and 2020 winner Lachie Neale – are way out in front of the rest, and are heavily favoured to take out the medal affectionately known as ‘Chaz’.
Popular sport statistics website Stats Insider recently published their predictions for the 2022 medal count, with voting simulated more than 10,000 times in order to ‘find the most likely outcome’.
One of the most popular betting events on the Aussie sport calendar, it also gives eager punters the opportunity to find the best value and the safest outcomes for a night that has thrown up many a curveball in the past.
Port Adelaide midfielder Ollie Wines raises his glass after being anointed the winner of the 2021 Brownlow Medal
Neale has been dynamic for the Lions this year, and is considered a 37.1 per cent chance of winning; while Oliver, who finished third in last year’s count, is seen as a 35 per cent probability.
Essentially, it’s almost an unbackable proposition that one of the two bullish inside midfielders will win the medal.
After them, the challengers drop off dramatically.
Lachie Neale (left) and Clayton Oliver (right) are expected to be the two clear favourites for the Brownlow Medal on Sunday night
Carlton superstar Patrick Cripps is the next closest at half the chances of the first two – though he does appear to be a lock for the podium (84.6 per cent) if the simulation is anything to go by.
Touk Miller, Andrew Braysaw and Christian Petracca are the only other players who are seen as a remote possibility of taking out the medal, with everyone else completely written off.
Betting markets appear to be trending in a similar way to the Stats Insiders prediction, although it is set to be one of the closest finishes of the last few years.
Stats Insider’s guide on the 2022 Brownlow Medal include a computer which simulated the more than 10,000 times
It’s just the second time since 2012 that the favourite is not shorter than $3, with punters likely to get plenty of bargains as opposed to 2020, when Neale won at $1.20.
You can get on Neale and Oliver for less than $3.75 across most agencies, with Cripps’ price hovering around the $5.50 mark.
Of course, Brownlow Medal predictors are nothing new.
Every year fanatical footy fans feverishly complete their spreadsheets every week with their own formula on who the umpires will award their votes to.
Dynamic Dees utility Christian Petracca, who has polled strongly in the Brownlow Medal over the past two years, is once again a favourite to score a number of votes
The Stats Insiders model has correctly predicted the winners and all top five placegetters over the past two years, in addition to crowning the eventual winners.
Here’s all the information you need to know ahead of footy’s night of nights…
When
The AFL officially moved the date of the Brownlow Medal to avoid a potential clash with the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II.
Lachie Neale’s wife Julie kisses him on the cheek after the Lions midfielder took out the 2020 Brownlow count
The code’s biggest night of the year – traditionally staged the Monday before the grand final – was originally scheduled to be at Crown Casino in Melbourne on September 19.
But AFL chief executive Gillon McLachlan has confirmed the awards will now be held this Sunday, September 18.
The count begins at 7pm AEST.
Where
This year’s medal will be held at its traditional home, the Crown Casino in Melbourne, after Covid forced the medal to be held in Perth and multiple TV studios to cope with pandemic requirements.
Carlton skipper Patrick Cripps arrives at last year’s Brownlow with glamorous fiance Monique Fontana
How
At the end of home and away game throughout the season, umpires vote for the best and fairest players in the match on a 3-2-1 basis.
Players who are suspended during the season are not eligible to win.
Multiple winners can be crowned in the event of a tie – something which has happened just 11 times in almost 100 years of the medal.
Who
The event this year will be hosted by Channel 7 duo Hamish McLachlan and Rebecca Maddern.
As is the custom, AFL CEO Gillon McLachlan will read out the votes from each game.
Port Adelaide star Ollie Wines took out last year’s medal: who will take home ‘Chaz’ for 2022?
Broadcast
The Brownlow Medal will broadcast live on Channel 7 from 7pm AEST, beginning with everyone’s favourite: the red carpet.
Previous winners
- 2021: Ollie Wines (Port Adelaide) – 36 votes
- 2020: Lachie Neale (Brisbaane) – 31 votes
- 2019: Nat Fyfe (Fremantle) – 33 votes
- 2018: Tom Mitchell (Hawthorn) – 28 votes
- 2017: Dustin Martin (Richmond) – 36 votes
- 2016: Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong) – 35 votes
- 2015: Nat Fyfe (Fremantle) – 31 votes
- 2014: Matt Priddis (West Coast) – 26 votes
- 2013: Gary Ablett Jr (Gold Coast) – 28 votes
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