While it’s still unclear when Americans will see some normalcy amid the coronavirus pandemic, experts have revealed that diagnostic and antibody tests as well as ‘contact-tracing’ are three key components needed to get the US back on track.
Even as coronavirus deaths mount across Europe and New York, the US and other countries are starting to contemplate an exit strategy and thinking about a staggered and carefully calibrated easing of restrictions designed to curb the scourge.
Deaths, hospitalizations and new infections are leveling off in places like Italy and Spain. Even New York has seen encouraging signs amid the gloom.
At the same time, politicians and health officials warn that the crisis is far from over and a catastrophic second wave could hit if countries let down their guard too soon.
Experts have revealed that diagnostic and antibody tests as well as ‘contact-tracing’ are three key components needed to get the US back on track. Medical staff are seen in New York on Monday
Experts believe that the three main ingredients for getting the US back to normal lies in testing.
According to The Daily Beast, public health experts revealed that diagnostic tests are needed to determine if someone currently has the virus.
Secondly, the antibody tests are imperative with determining if people recently had it and may have developed immunity to the virus.
And lastly, experts believe there needs to be a more robust ‘contact-tracing’ method to track those who may have been exposed to the virus and prevent further spreading.
William Haseltine, a former Harvard Medical School professor, said diagnostic tests could be ‘done by the end of the summer’.
Meanwhile, Dr Anthony Fauci recently said that an antibody test is expected to be rolled out in the coming weeks.
Though the US has shelter-at-home restrictions in place until at least May 1, the order could be extended, but some experts don’t believe the order will go past four months.
Timothy Brewer, a professor of epidemiology and medicine at UCLA, who has advised the World Health Organization and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), told the Daily Beast that he believes the restrictions in the US will ease up before August.
There are more than 573,000 confirmed cases of the virus in the US with nearly 23,000 deaths
Brewer even gave an example using New York City, which has been the epicenter for the virus in the US.
According to Brewer, New Yorkers could expect to be back in the office by the end of the summer.
By that time, New York resident may even be able to ‘throw a small party, depending on your age and demographic—and the age and demographics of the individuals who will be coming,’ he told the Daily Beast.
Brewer said that politicians will likely continue discussions around releasing younger people who don’t have underlying health conditions from shelter-in-place restrictions.
President Donald Trump initially said he wanted to have American up and running again by Easter, but just weeks before the holiday he extended US restrictions on social distancing through April.
Health officials like Dr Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, has warned that reopening the US too soon could lead to ‘extraordinary risk’ of spreading the virus even further.
Fauci’s warning has prompted governors on the East and West coasts to form their own agreements for how and when their states will reopen.
Nine of the governors are Democratic and include Gavin Newsom of California and Andrew Cuomo of New York, both of whom have seen their ratings soar during their handling of the crisis. Also joining the eastern effort is Massachusetts Gov Charlie Baker, a Republican.
Health officials like Dr Anthony Fauci (pictured) the nation’s top infectious disease expert, has warned that reopening the US too soon could lead to ‘extraordinary risk’ of spreading the virus even further
But President Donald Trump insisted Monday that the call on when to reopen the country and the economy will be ‘soon’ and a ‘decision by me’
Pointedly, the governors on both coasts said that ‘public health’ was their leading priority.
But Trump said he has a blanket authority to order a reopening of the country.
‘When somebody is the president of the United States, the authority is total,’ Trump said at the White House during a marathon press briefing.
‘It’s total. It’s total. And the governors know that,’ Trump said.
Trump insisted Monday that the call on when to reopen the country and the economy will be ‘soon’ and a ‘decision by me’.
The president said: ‘If some states refuse to open, I would like to see that person run for election. They’re going to open. They’re going to all open. I think that’s something that’s not going to happen. They want to open. They have to open.’
But it’s still unclear when such lockdowns will end and the ways in which people will attempt to return to their normal lives.
Governors across the US, including New York Gov Andrew Cuomo, are against reopening hard-hit states before virus is under control
Examining the question are three new reports, from the American Enterprise Institute, the Center for American Progress, and Harvard’s Safra Center for Ethics.
Life in the US will not fully return to normal until a vaccine is distributed widely, and drastic interventions will be needed until then once restrictions are relaxed, all three conclude.
All three reports call for a period of national lockdown, which could only be lifted after certain conditions are met.
For AEI, restrictions would ease state-by-state after a state recorded 14 days of falling daily new case numbers.
For CAP, the national lockdown would continue for 45 days, while for Harvard, the most draconian, it would last three months.
Once restrictions ease, with schools and some non-essential businesses reopening, all three reports say that massive testing would be needed, ranging from 750,000 tests per week for the AEI report, to an astonishing 100 million daily tests in a Harvard whitepaper.
The CAP report also proposes a stunning nationwide system of digital surveillance using cell phone location data to track everyone’s potential exposure to known cases.
Such a system, deployed with success in authoritarian China, would be certain to raise difficult questions about privacy and individual liberty.
While they differ in their details, the common points in the three reports are striking.
Until there is a vaccine, gatherings of more than 50 people should be banned, and remote working should be continued where possible even after lockdowns end, they all agree.
With a safe and effective vaccine more than a year away under the best case scenario, it seems clear that American life won’t fully return to normal any time soon.