REVEALED: How the Premier League table would look if decided by a mathematical formula used by FIFA – with champions Liverpool reaching 106 points
- A statistical model has been devised to examine how the league would conclude
- The professor of mathematics at Columbia University has crunched the numbers
- Liverpool would cruise to the title and crash through the 100-point barrier
- Norwich, Aston Villa and Bournemouth would drop into the Championship
An advanced statistical model, created by the professor of mathematics at Columbia University, has crunched the numbers of the Premier League and given a fascinating insight as to how the campaign would finish.
With England’s top flight now suspended until at least April 3, a mist of uncertainty now shrouds the Premier League, with so many variables yet to be decided.
Despite holding the biggest ever points margin at this point of the season, Liverpool are two victories away from officially clinching the title. Chelsea, Manchester United, Sheffield United and Wolves are still battling for European places, while only six points separate the bottom five teams.
The model dictates that Liverpool would smash the 100-point barrier in winning the titlle
Chelsea would also be successful in fending off competition to make the Champions League
Yet while options are discussed, a highly advanced mathematical formula used by FIFA has already assessed the standings, and it’s safe to say Liverpool fans will be pleased.
Indeed, with nine matches left to play, the league table would remain exactly the same as it does right now.
Professor Julien Guyon has published his findings in the Times, showing that Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool would smash through the 100-point barrier and finish around the 106 mark; thus ending their 30-year wait to be crowned kings of England.
Despite facing each of the relegation candidates Man United would fail to break the top four
| Position | Team | Current points | Projected points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liverpool | 82 | 105.9 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 57 | 77.8 |
| 3 | Leicester City | 53 | 70.8 |
| 4 | Chelsea | 48 | 62.9 |
| 5 | Manchester United | 45 | 60.4 |
| 6 | Wolves | 43 | 57.4 |
| 7 | Sheffield United | 43 | 57.3 |
| 8 | Tottenham Hotspur | 41 | 54.2 |
| 9 | Arsenal | 40 | 53 |
| 10 | Burnley | 39 | 51.1 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace | 39 | 49.6 |
| 12 | Everton | 37 | 48.4 |
| 13 | Newcastle United | 35 | 46.3 |
| 14 | Southampton | 34 | 45.1 |
| 15 | Brighton & Hove Albion | 29 | 36.5 |
| 16 | West Ham United | 27 | 36.3 |
| 17 | Watford | 27 | 35.4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 27 | 34.3 |
| 19 | Aston Villa | 25 | 32.6 |
| 20 | Norwich City | 21 | 28.3 |
The mathematical model ‘takes into account the strength of the opponents left to be played and the number of home and away games, shows that the present standings of the table are the fairest reflection of the season.’
During its creation, the model was inspired by the Elo calculation method, which was introduced by the physicist Arpad Elo in 1960 to rank chess players and is now used by FIFA to rank men’s and women’s national teams.
Norwich, Aston Villa and Bournemouth would therefore remain in the bottom places, and be condemned to a place in the Championship next season.
Interestingly, despite their final run-in of fixtures against each of the relegation candidates, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s Manchester United would not hypothetically take a late steal into the top four, but would instead finish around three points behind Chelsea.
Norwich would continue on their trajectory and finish bottom of the Premier League pile
The final standings are not influenced by older performances or matches played in other competitions, and only take into account previous 2019-20 Premier League clashes into account.
Top flights team feel the league won’t resume – if it does at all – until at least September, causing a knock-on effect of delays.
A small window of space has now been freed up in the football calendar however, after UEFA confirmed that Euro 2020 would now be pushed back a year in order to help the various European divisions.
