Michel Barnier vows EU WON’T give any more ground on Brexit deal

The EU has flatly dismissed calls for the Withdrawal Agreement to be reopened.

But Theresa May has promised MPs that she will somehow get legally-binding changes that satisfy concerns about the Irish border backstop.

Here are some possible options for how the PM might seek to get through the impasse.

A unilateral exit clause

Prominent backbenchers including former Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab has pushed Mrs May to seek a unilateral get-out from the backstop.

The current mechanism can only be deactivated through a joint review system – although the EU insists it is technically ‘temporary’.  

But Brussels has insisted that an ‘insurance policy’ that can be ended by one side is not acceptable.

Expiry date

A hard end date to the backstop would allay the fears of most Tory MPs – as long as it is not too far in the future. 

Boris Johnson has suggested he could vote for the deal if she manages to get a time limit, although he also said it should conclude before the next election in May 2022.

The former foreign secretary also unhelpfully insisted a legal ‘codicil’ – an amendment which would run alongside the Withdrawal Agreement – would not be enough to win him over and he wants the whole thing unpicked.

Again, the EU has insisted it will not agree to a backstop that is time limited. 

The ‘Malthouse Compromise’ 

Tory Remainers and Brexiteers have been working on a proposal to replace the backstop with a looser, Canada-style free trade arrangements. The plan would deploy technology in a bid to avoid a hard border.

But Brussels has already dismissed the technogical solutions as ‘magical thinking’, saying the systems needed do not yet exist.  

Guarantees that the backstop will only be ‘temporary’ 

The EU’s top official, Martin Selmayr floated the idea of ‘unzipping’ the Withdrawal Agreement and inserting new guarantees about the ‘temporary’ nature of the backstop during meetings with MPs.

He suggested the text of recent letters from Donald Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker could be cut and pasted in without reopening other terms.

But that would be highly unlikely to satisfy Brexiteers. 

Valentine’s Day 

MPs will hold another round of votes on Brexit.

They are not due to pass judgement on Theresa May’s deal – instead debating a ‘neutral’ motion simply saying that they have considered the issue.

However, a range of amendments are set to be tabled. They could include proposals to delay the Brexit date beyond March 29. 

Labour is pushing a change that would force another ‘meaningful vote’ on the PM’s Brexit deal by February 26, regardless of whether she has finished renegotiating the package with the EU.

February 24-25

Mrs May could have an opportunity to seal a new package with fellow EU leaders at a joint summit with the Arab League in Sharm el-Sheikh.

However, it is not clear how many will attend the gathering – or whether she will have completed the deal by then.

February 27

Downing Street is trying to head off a potential Tory Remainer mutiny by promising MPs will get another set of votes by this date regardless of whether there is a final deal.

March 21-22

The PM will attend a scheduled EU summit in Brussels that would effectively be the last opportunity to get agreement.

Some MPs fear that Mrs May is trying to delay for as long as possible, and might even try to hold a make-or-break vote in the Commons on March 26. That would be just 72 hours before Brexit, giving them a very stark deal-or-no-deal choice.

11pm, March 29

The UK is due to leave the EU with or without a deal, unless the Article 50 process is extended with approval from the bloc’s leaders, or revoked to cancel Brexit altogether.