Prisons could be effectively full within four years with the number of inmates predicted to hit a historic high.
Imposing longer sentences could lead to nearly 92,000 behind bars – a record in the modern era.
The figure was revealed in projections for England and Wales published yesterday by the Ministry of Justice. The move will be welcomed by the Tory Right as a sign the Government is taking a harder line on law and order.
Prisons could be effectively full within four years with the number of inmates predicted to hit a historic high (Stock image)
But critics warned that a surge in the number of prisoners would lead to spiralling levels of overcrowding, violence and self-harm – already at all-time highs.
Only last week Justice Secretary David Lidington said he wanted ‘to see prison numbers come down’.
The prison population is currently 86,388. If custodial sentences maintain today’s trends, that number is predicted to rise to 88,000 by March 2022.
But the MoJ warned there was a possibility the number of criminals locked up could hit 91,800 by June 2021. There are currently places for 87,053 prisoners in jails – the so-called operational capacity.
One reason for the surge is that more serious cases are coming before the courts, including the spate of historic sex abuse trials being driven by allegations in the wake of the Jimmy Savile scandal.
Others include restrictions on the use of cautions, tougher guidelines on the sentencing of violent and sexual offenders, new domestic violence offences and curbs on day release for prisoners who abscond.
The report also said the number of inmates aged over 50 would grow from 13,376 in June this year to 14,800 in 2021.
Liberal Democrat home affairs spokesman Sir Ed Davey said: ‘Our prisons are already bursting at the seams. Under current plans there simply won’t be enough places to cope with this huge surge in prisoner numbers.
Liberal Democrat home affairs spokesman Sir Ed Davey said: ‘Our prisons are already bursting at the seams’
‘The Government is recklessly rolling the dice on the future of our prison system. Ministers need to get a grip and urgently take action to reduce overcrowding in our jails.’
Andrew Neilson, campaigns director at the Howard League for Penal Reform pressure group, said: ‘The number of people behind bars has more than doubled since Margaret Thatcher was in power and our failed prison system is buckling under the weight.
‘More people are dying by suicide than ever before, assaults and self-injury are at record levels, and reoffending rates remain stubbornly high. Building more prisons will not solve these problems – it will only cause them to grow. The Government must reduce demand on jails if it wants to regain control of them.’
Last month the crisis engulfing jails was exposed as the MoJ’s ‘safety in custody’ statistics revealed self-harm, violence, assaults on guards and inmates released by mistake all climbed to record levels.
The total number of assaults on staff and inmates rose 20 per cent to a record 26,643 – one every 20 minutes. This included 7,159 attacks on guards, an increase of 32 per cent.
The MoJ has admitted that violence has been fuelled by a surge in the availability of legal highs such as spice and black mamba, an increase in gang culture and cuts in the numbers of officers.
Mr Lidington has vowed to get to grips with the problems and is taking action to stabilise prisons, but concedes issues might not be fixed for years.
A MoJ spokesman said: ‘We will always have enough prison places for offenders committed to custody by the courts.
‘Prison numbers can fluctuate, which is why we have a robust set of plans in place. This includes modernising the estate and building new accommodation.’