Putin’s beleaguered forces may not have enough in reserve to hold off another Ukraine attack

Beleaguered Russian forces still reeling from Ukraine’s devastating offensive may not have ‘sufficient reserves or adequate morale’ to withstand another concerted assault in eastern parts of Ukraine, according to defence experts.

British defence intelligence analysts believe Moscow has managed to establish a new defensive line between the Oskil River and the town of Svatove near the border between the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions.

The zone is viewed as important partly because capturing he Luhansk region, part of the Donbas, was one of Russia’s key warm aims. 

Any substantial loss of territory here, one of the few main resupply routes from Russia’s Belgorod region, would ‘unambiguously undermine’ Vladimir Putin’s strategy for the conflict, the experts say. 

It comes following the collapse of Russian lines in the east after a stunning Ukrainian offensive launched on September 6 that took the invaders by surprise, forcing the Kremlin to concede swathes of territory. 

Russian forces suffered huge losses during Ukraine’s lightning assault, which saw Ukraine liberate thousands of square miles and push the frontline back. Pictured: A wrecked armoured vehicle 

A destroyed Russian MT-LB armoured personnel carrier burning in a field on the outskirts of Izyum

The Ministry of Defence (MoD) said it is unclear whether Russia’s frontline forces have adequate reserves or morale to withstand another concerted Ukrainian assault in eastern parts of the country. Pictured: Ukrainian servicemen near a destroyed structure in Izium

The front line has shifted eastwards towards the Russian border, between the Oskil River and the town of Svatove near the border between the Kharkiv and occupied Luhansk regions

In its latest update on the situation in Ukraine, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) said it is unclear whether Russia’s frontline forces have adequate reserves or morale to withstand another concerted Ukrainian assault in eastern parts of the country.

Despite the superb performance of Ukrainian armed forces, President Zelensky said it was too early to say the tide of the war was turning, and that the outcome hinged on the swift delivery of foreign weapons to his country.  

Putin, in his first comments on Ukraine’s counteroffensive, brushed off the advances with a smile but warned that Russia would respond more forcefully if its troops were put under further pressure. 

This raises questions of how the Russian dictator could escalate in Ukraine, with some analysts predicting a general mobilisation of Russian citizens, while others fear that he could be contemplating the use of nuclear weapons. 

In light of the threat, President Joe Biden warned Putin to avoid using nuclear weapons as his forces are beaten back in Ukraine or face ‘consequences.’

In a preview for this Sunday’s 60 Minutes, Scott Pelley asked the president what words he would have for his Russian counterpart if he is considering using chemical or tactical nuclear weapons in the Ukraine. 

Biden responded: ‘Don’t. Don’t. Don’t. You will change the face of war unlike anything since World War II.’

When Pelley pushed the president for America’s response should Putin cross the line, Biden declined to comment on a specific plan, only saying that the US would act if nuclear weapons are put into play. 

‘It’ll be consequential,’ Biden said. ‘[Russia] will become more of a pariah in the world than they ever have been. 

President Joe Biden warned Vladimir Putin that Russia would face ‘consequences’ if they decided to use nuclear or chemical weapons in Ukraine

‘And depending on the extent of what they do will determine what response would occur.’ 

In the wake of the Russian retreat, Ukrainain forces have liberated dozens of towns and villages, including the strategic hub of Izium, where bodies have been unearthed at a mass burial site.

At least ten torture chambers were discovered in the Kharkiv region, with 500 bodies found in the mass grave. 

Ukraine’s police chief Igor Klymenko said that two torture centres were found in Balaklya, a town in the northeast of the Kharkiv region. 

The head of a pro-Russian administration pushed out by the counteroffensive, Vitaly Ganchev, accused Ukrainians of staging atrocities in the city of Izium.

The accusation follows the Kremlin’s usual playbook of claiming it has been framed over atrocities allegedly committed by its own forces. 

Klymenko said today that most of the people buried in the mass graves are civilians, with some of the graves marked only with numbers. Other graves bear military symbols, suggesting that soldiers are buried there. 

It is not yet clear how the people died, but the Ukrainians say some were likely killed fighting while others may have been caught in shelling and died from their wounds.

United Nations human rights monitors will go to Izium ‘to try to establish a bit more about what may have happened’, a spokesperson said.  

A Ukranian soldier standing atop an abandoned Russian tank near a village on the outskirts of Izium. Putin has hinted he will escalate in Ukraine if his army continues to take a beating

An abandoned Russian tank in vegetation in a village on the outskirts of Izium. President Zelensky said it was too early to say the tide of the war was turning, and that the outcome hinged on the swift delivery of foreign weapons to his country

A destroyed Russian tank and armoured personnel carriers on the outskirts of Izium. Ukrainain forces have liberated dozens of towns and villages and have unearthed a mass burial site

An abandoned Russian armoured personnel carrier near a village on the outskirts of Izium

Zelensky said the dead included both children and adults, civilians and military.

‘Tortured, shot, killed by shelling. Even entire families are buried there: Mother, father and daughter,’ Mr Zelensky said.

Asked if the mass grave contained mainly civilians or soldiers, Klymenko told a news conference: ‘On a preliminary estimate, civilians. Although we have information that there are troops there, we haven’t recovered a single one yet.’

Police have begun exhuming the site to gather evidence of potential war crimes and Klymenko said authorities had opened 204 criminal cases probing the atrocities. 

Prosecutors have so-far uncovered Russian torture chambers and dug up graves of civilians whose bodies show signs of summary execution and have been mutilated. People have also told stories of being electrocuted during interrogation sessions, of rapes, forced disappearances, arbitrary detention and other horrors.

The head of the prosecutor’s office in the Ukrainian region of Kharkiv said that some of the bodies unearthed from the mass burial site showed signs of torture, with some buried with their hands tied behind their backs or ropes around their necks. 

Izium resident Sergei Gorodko said that among the hundreds buried in the individual graves were dozens of adults and children killed in a Russian airstrike on an apartment building. He said he pulled some of them out of the rubble ‘with my own hands’. 

Zelensky hinted at war crimes when he compared Izium to Mariupol and Bucha, two cities where Russia has systematically exterminated civilians in what has been described as crimes against humanity. 

‘We want the world to know what is really happening and what the Russian occupation has led to. Bucha, Mariupol, now, unfortunately, Izyum,’ he said. ‘Russia leaves death everywhere. And it must be held accountable.’

The chief police investigator for the region of Kharkiv, Serhii Bolvinov, has said that the bodies will be exhumed and taken away for forensic examination.

It is part of a huge police effort in which the officers are working with prosecutors and other investigators on uncovering atrocities.

Ukraine has uncovered a mass grave site in woodland near the city of Izyum, which was occupied by Russian forces until last week when it was liberated in a lightning counter-attack

The head of the prosecutor’s office in the Ukrainian region of Kharkiv said that some of the bodies unearthed from the mass burial site showed signs of torture, with some buried with their hands tied behind their backs or ropes around their necks

Prosecutors spent yesterday sweeping the area for explosives and have now begun exhuming the pits so that bodies can be taken away for forensic examination to see how exactly the hundreds of people died

Investigators say some of the graves appear to be of civilians, some bear military markings, and others are simply marked with numbers (pictured) – with no clear indication who they contain or how those people died

Ukrainian MP Lesia Vasylenko said the recapture of Izium was a ‘huge strategic gain’, militarily speaking.

‘Ukraine is making confident advances in the north-east and the south-east of the country as well,’ she told Sky News.

‘We are making progress for our sake, but also for the sake of bringing back long-standing peace to the continent.’

Asked what she thought Mr Putin might do next, she said: ‘Nobody can be in the mind of that power-crazed leader.’

She added: ‘Whatever it is, we have to be prepared for it – we have to be prepared for it as Ukrainians, you have to be prepared for it in the UK.

‘And actually, people worldwide need to be prepared that something absolutely atrocious, another crazy move, can happen any time.

‘For that, Ukrainians need to have the weapons to protect themselves, the ammunition in the necessary amount to protect themselves.

‘And the West needs to be prepared to apply every sanction that there is in the book against Russia.’

Western sanctions are starting to hurt Russia’s ability to make advanced weaponry for the war in Ukraine, a top NATO military adviser said, though he said Russia could still manufacture ‘a lot of ammunition’. 

Meanwhile, Chinese leader Xi Jinping refused to attend dinner with Russian President Vladimir Putin and 11 others heads of states at a regional security summit on Thursday.

It is a snub that showcases Putin’s international isolation even among his own so-called allies.

Xi, who is making his first foreign trip since the beginning of the pandemic, is attending a meeting this week of the China- and Russia-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in the Uzbek city of Samarkand.

However, he was absent from group photographs published late on Thursday when the leaders, including Putin and Turkey’s Tayyip Erdogan, went for dinner.

An Uzbek government source later confirmed Xi’s absence and said the Chinese delegation cited its Covid-19 policy as the reason.

It was the first in-person meeting between the two leaders since Putin saw Xi in early February for the Winter Olympic Games in Beijing, days before the Russian leader launched the military offensive in Ukraine

Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) speaks to fellow leaders including Russian President Vladimir Putin(2-R) and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko (R) at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. Chinese President Xi is nowhere to be found

Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, speaks to Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, Friday, Sept. 16, 2022

The snub comes just hours after Putin and Xi met to hail their strategic ties in defiance of the West amid Russia’s widely condemned war in Ukraine and China’s claim on self-governed Taiwan. 

While Russia has fully backed China’s claim to Taiwan, Xi has expressed hesitancy over Putin’s military exploits across the border, something which Putin acknowledged during talks yesterday. 

‘We highly value the balanced position of our Chinese friends when it comes to the Ukraine crisis,’ Putin told Xi.

‘We understand your questions and concern about this. During today’s meeting, we will of course explain our position.’ 

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi also assailed the Kremlin chief, telling Putin this was not the time for war.  

Mr Putin sought to assuage India’s concerns, telling Mr Modi at the SCO summit that Moscow wants to see a quick end to the fighting. He also alleged that Ukrainian officials have refused to negotiate.

‘I know your stand on the conflict in Ukraine and the concerns that you have repeatedly voiced,’ the Russian leader told Mr Modi.

‘We will do all we can to end that as quickly as possible. Regrettably, the other side, the leadership of Ukraine, has rejected the negotiations process and stated that it wants to achieve its goals by military means, on the battlefield.’