When he casually returned the call from the unfamiliar number a few hours later, he was surprised to discover the voice at the other end was Theresa May’s. She asked him to make an urgent call to Lord Gilbert, the Conservative campaign chief, without explaining why.
When Crosby got through, he told him that May wanted the pair to help her beat Jeremy Corbyn in a snap Election on June 8. ‘I’m not sure that’s a smart idea, mate’, replied Crosby in his broad Aussie drawl.
When Crosby inquired what research Tory HQ had done on how voters would react to an Election, since May had said there wouldn’t be one, he was shocked by the answer. None.
Divisive but effective: Sir Lynton Crosby
That wasn’t the only problem. When Gilbert said May wanted Crosby to return to London straight away to run the campaign, Crosby said he couldn’t. His wife’s party had just started and guests were arriving from all over the world.
But he agreed to draw up an urgent memo advising May on the pros and cons of an early Election. Crosby’s fellow Aussie business partner Mark Textor quickly organised focus groups of floating voters and a national private poll.
They formed the basis of Crosby’s bleak ‘killer memo’ which warned May of the huge risk she was taking.
A Tory insider said: ‘Crosby’s research showed people liked what May was doing to help the JAMs (the so-called Just About Managing).
But they couldn’t see why she needed an Election to do it. And they said ‘if we give her a big majority she might use it against us’. When she announced the dementia tax and cuts to winter fuel handouts for OAPs, and school meals, they felt their fears were justified.’
Another source said: ‘It was a mess.
‘Nothing had been thought through because the PM’s team were desperate to keep the Election quiet and didn’t trust anyone. Crosby wanted to use some tactics he did with David Cameron, but May’s people hated Cameron so much they refused out of spite.’
Crosby’s memo was sent to Theresa May days before her shock announcement on April 18 that she was calling a June 8 poll. It was based on responses from two hurriedly convened groups of floating voters and a national survey from his business partner Mark Textor and spells out in plain terms – some of which we have highlighted – that they believe there is a ‘lot of risk’ in calling an Election
Crosby’s memo is believed to have been sent to May’s team within a week. By then she had been on a walking holiday in Wales and resolved to go ahead.
She announced the Election on April 18, just 11 days after she phoned Crosby – who didn’t arrive back in London from Fiji until more than a week after the campaign had started.
Crosby’s electioneering style is not everyone’s cup of tea. The Mail on Sunday has previously disclosed how he told Boris Johnson not to bother with ‘f****** Muslims’, and how he had boasted of getting Australian PM John Howard elected despite privately calling him ‘as dull as bats***’.
Crosby, 59, is credited with inventing ‘dog whistle’ tactics, whereby politicians echo shrill sentiments on populist issues like immigration, without actually endorsing them.
His admirers say his skill lies in his ability to sum up Election prospects in a short, sharp sentence. His ‘killer memo’ certainly proved prophetic, which is why Crosby’s allies say May must regret ignoring the ‘Wizard of Oz’.
All out: May’s joint chiefs of staff Fiona Hill and Nick Timothy, both circled, quit after the Election fiasco. Katie Perrior, pictured on the far right, quit as May’s spin doctor in April, lambasting ‘toxic’ Hill and Timothy. Only May’s bespectacled husband Philip, behind Timothy, remains to guide the PM