China will overtake the US economy in 15 YEARS

China is likely to overtake the United States as the world’s No.1 economy in 2032, and India will be leaping ahead of both the UK and France by the end of next year, a new report shows.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) consultancy’s annual World Economic League Table put India in fifth place, before France in sixth and the UK in seventh in 2018.

However, come 2032, India will be in number three, Japan in number four, Germany in fifth and Brazil in sixth. 

Previous reports had shown that China would take the top spot by 2031, but the predicted negative impact on the U.S. economy of President Trump has been ‘less severe’ than expected, CEBR said.

Good news: CEBR said that China would take the top spot on year later than previously thought as the negative impact of President Trump has been less severe than expected

 ‘Because the impact of President Trump on trade has been less severe than expected, the USA will retain its global crown a year longer than we anticipated in the last report,’ the report said. 

India’s ascent is part of a trend that will see Asian economies increasingly dominate the top 10 largest economies over the next 15 years.

‘Despite temporary setbacks … India’s economy has still caught up with that of France and the UK and in 2018 will have overtaken them both to become the world’s fifth largest economy in dollar terms,’ said Douglas McWilliams, CEBR deputy chairman.

McWilliams said India’s growth had been slowed by restrictions on high-value banknotes and a new sales tax, a view shared by economists polled by Reuters. 

While Britain looks set to lag behind France over the next couple of years, Cebr predicted that Brexit’s effects on Britain’s economy will be less than feared, allowing it to overtake France again in 2020.

At least sort of: Xi Jinping's China is likely to overtake the Trump's U.S. as the world's No.1 economy in 2032

At least sort of: Xi Jinping’s China is likely to overtake the Trump’s U.S. as the world’s No.1 economy in 2032

Russia was vulnerable to low oil prices and too reliant on the energy sector, and looked likely to fall to 17th place among the world’s largest economies by 2032, from 11th now. 

Oliver Kolodseike, senior economist and report co-author, said: ‘The interesting trend emerging is that by 2032 five of the ten largest economies will be in Asia while European economies arefalling down the ranking and the USA loses its top spot.

‘Technology and urbanisation will be important factors transforming the world economy over the next 15 years.’

A Reuters poll of economists in late October suggested global economic growth in 2018 looks likely to quicken slightly to 3.6 percent from 3.5 percent this year – with risks to that forecast lying on the upside.