The two-and-a-half month break caused by Covid-19 was always likely to introduce an element of chaos theory into the Bundesliga season.
But as it’s transpired, familiar failings rather than fresh ones have come to haunt RB Leipzig since the restart.
Their bizarre inability to take all three points in their home stadium has been an issue for most of this year and now it’s threatening to cost them the Champions League place that had long looked nailed-on.
Julian Nagelsmann reacts as RB Leipzig drop two more points at home to Paderborn
Leipzig’s top four chances are in jeopardy after the bottom side scored a late equaliser
Saturday’s 1-1 draw with bottom-of-the-table Paderborn was the fourth home game in succession – either side of the Covid break – and fifth this year that Leipzig have taken just one point instead of the expected three.
Borussia Monchengladbach, Bayer Leverkusen, Freiburg, Hertha Berlin and now Paderborn have all come away from the Red Bull Arena with draws in 2020 and Julian Nagelsmann must be at a loss to explain why his team can’t complete the job at home.
Though some of those can be regarded as tricky opponents, Leipzig have designs on being Bundesliga champions and so are games they must win.
The way Leipzig’s afternoon unravelled against a Paderborn team very much resigned to their relegation fate suggested all is not too well.
Nagelsmann’s side played some wonderful football in the first-half, the highlight being the flowing team goal teed up by Timo Werner and rounded off by Patrik Schick.
Timo Werner, who is close to a £53m move to Chelsea, reacts after missing a chance
What should have been a comfortable win for Leipzig unravelled after Upamecano’s red card
Upamecano trudges off in front of his manager Nagelsmann after his second booking
But defender Dayot Upamecano, a player regularly linked with Premier League clubs, was apparently on a self-destruct mission.
Already on a booking following an earlier foul, Upamecano inexplicably booted the ball away in frustration after being pulled up for an infringement two minutes before half-time and received a second yellow.
Despite being forced to sacrifice attacker Schick to firm things up with 10 men, Leipzig were seconds away from all three points after a battling second-half performance.
But Paderborn’s numerical advantage finally paid off when Christian Strohdiek reacted quickest to score when Leipzig goalkeeper Peter Gulacsi pushed out Marlon Ritter’s effort.
It was an all-too-familiar feeling of two points dropped at home and increasingly these results are having consequences for Leipzig.
Leipzig players Marcel Sabitzer (left) and Kevin Kampl during their home draw with Freiburg
Further points were dropped at the Red Bull Arena when Hertha Berlin earned a 2-2 draw
Timo Werner catches his breath by leaning over the advertising hoardings against Hertha
When the Bundesliga resumed last month, they were just five points behind leaders Bayern Munich and, given the unpredictable nature of this unprecedented situation, still had every chance of winning their first Bundesliga title.
Now they are 11 points behind Bayern and the talk has switched from the championship to whether Leipzig can hold on to their Champions League place.
Monchengladbach and Leverkusen are just three points behind with four rounds of games remaining and one of the trio will be disappointed.
It’s true that Leipzig haven’t actually lost any of their five games since the Bundesliga came back behind closed doors.
How the German title race was shaping up when the Bundesliga action resumed last month
How the race for the four Champions League places looked after Saturday’s Bundesliga games
They have looked sensational in their 5-0 win at Mainz and their 4-2 success at Cologne, playing the exciting style of football that has become their hallmark. But that failure to win home matches is becoming a season-defining concern.
Last week, Leipzig’s sporting director Markus Krosche said, ‘it’s still difficult to implement plans’ for squad reinforcement over the summer because ‘for us, it’s all about whether we get into the Champions League.’
This wouldn’t have even been a topic for debate a few weeks ago with Leipzig very much on course to make Europe’s top competition.
Speaking of transfers, there’s a growing sense that the endless speculation over the future of leading marksman Werner has caused a distraction for the squad.
It looks likely the Germany striker is heading to Chelsea in a deal worth £53m, although Leipzig managing director Oliver Mintzlaff insisted on Saturday that nothing was yet agreed.
The Chelsea-bound striker worked tirelessly up front for his side after they were reduced to ten
Werner had a chance to make it 2-0 to the hosts but was unable to steer his effort into the net
Rumours about Werner’s next move have been rumbling on in the background for months, with the forward linked to Liverpool, Chelsea and elsewhere.
It seems this week’s news hasn’t ended this distraction and the fact Werner will now be under the gaze of Premier League fans for the remainder of the season, increasing the pressure on him to perform, won’t help either.
Werner toiled alone up front admirably during the second half on Saturday but missed pretty much an open goal with one opportunity he created for himself.
Paderborn captain Christian Strohdiek was the first to react to fire home from close range
Peter Gulacsi could only push Marlon Ritter’s shot back into the penalty area after a corner
The interest of Arsenal and Manchester United in Upamecano doesn’t help concentration levels either, though it’s hard to know whether it explains his daft actions on Saturday.
The Werner windfall will help Leipzig but the club need to be in the Champions League for reasons of both finance and prestige.
This alarming inability to win at home could yet cost them that.
With four matches to decide their fate, it’s up to Nagelsmann to restore focus to his squad and secure that expected top four finish.